Post by happybadger on Jul 29, 2018 0:39:38 GMT
Yeah, it's that bad!
Six teams have their "yes/no" playoff fates determined:
North Queensland Dolphins and Gold Coast Crusade are IN the playoffs. Brisbane Cougars, Sydney Oilers, Hull Kingston Redskins, and Cape Town Ravens, on the other hand, are out of the playoffs.
Everyone else is in with a shout - whilst the lower end teams have a slim probability, and third placed Rochdale Raptors should get in, there's no guarantees for anyone.
And FIVE teams on 18 points, two of which, as of now, are IN the playoffs, three OUT??? Yeah, preposterous!
First major fact: anybody on 17 or 18 points cannot make the top two (only Rochdale and Fairfield possibly could knock Dolphins and/or Crusade out of the top two).
Let's look at the teams, from lowest to highest, and realize that I am not predicting the fate of anybody below 20 points here:
Canberra Carnage, 17 points, +103 differential: games remaining: @ Sydney, Fairfield
Bad news, they need to leapfrog over four teams to make the playoffs. Worse, one of their last two games will involve Fairfield Stallions. The good news, they play Oilers first, and have the second best points differential in the entire ASRL, so a tie on points will be enough.
But leapfrogging four sides? If Canberra doesn't sell out their stadium for the Fairfield match, the club marketing department should get sacked.
Melbourne Monsters, 18 points, +3 differential: Darwin, @ Auckland
Three teams to leapfrog over, and the two immediately above them (Glasgow and Adelaide) basically the same in points differential, with Auckland and Darwin's point differential sufficiently higher that there's no guarantee that they'll catch them on differential if they're tied on points.
The good, the bad, and the ugly: they play Darwin at home, then Auckland away, so they have a puncher's chance to pass them both on points and differential winning both...but will that be enough?
Glasgow Reapers, 18 points, +10 differential: @ Adelaide, Rochdale
Two teams to leapfrog over, Melbourne and Canberra hot on their heels, and the team immediately in front of them, Adelaide, even though it's away, a huge opportunity to step forward toward the playoffs...
...but the last game, a possibly desperate Rochdale visits Scotland...one of the four tough games any 17 or 18 point team has...
Adelaide Attitude, 18 points, +11 differential: Glasgow, @ Brisbane
One team to jump, three teams hot on their heels, and a trip to eliminated Brisbane to end their regular season...but the visit by the Reapers is a must-win...
Auckland Orcas, 18 points, +25 differential: @ Fairfield, Melbourne
Uneasy isthe head who wears the crown the team that is in sixth place in the ASRL table, all the maddening hounds baying for their blood behind them, a trip to third-placed Fairfield ahead of them, then a possibly desperate Monster invasion of Auckland to conclude the season...
...if they win both, they should be in the playoffs, but that's a huge "if"...
Darwin Dragons, 18 points, +52 differential: @ Melbourne, Gold Coast
Fifth place in the ASRL table is no less uneasy than sixth, this season...possibly the toughest run-in of the teams not clinched yet into the playoffs, especially the Crusade invading Darwin to close the regular season...
...if they win both, they should be in the playoffs, but that last game - OOF!
Fairfield Stallions, 20 points, -24 differential: Auckland, @ Canberra
Note the differential - that could be critical if the Stallions do not win both games. To be safe, Fairfield needs to get three points from their last two games, against two desperate sides clawing to either stay in the top six, or get there...doable, but lots of antacids in Fairfield over the next fortnight...
...they need to win both games, and have Gold Coast lose both theirs, and have Rochdale lose one of their games, to make the top two.
Rochdale Raptors, 21 points, +92 differential: Cape Town, @ Glasgow
Cape Town at Spotland (NOT wherever the sim says that Rochdale has been playing their games in Manchester), and a trip to Glasgow...
...and two points behind Gold Coast, but 47 points behind in differential...
...a win or draw will clinch playoffs...but to get top two, one of two scenarios are required:
a - Rochdale gains at least three points on North Queensland (differential favors Rochdale, so on a tie on points, the differential would suffice).
b - Rochdale gains at least three points on Gold Coast (unless Rochdale wins both games big enough to overturn the differential, the difference in differential makes a tie on points insufficient).
Six teams have their "yes/no" playoff fates determined:
North Queensland Dolphins and Gold Coast Crusade are IN the playoffs. Brisbane Cougars, Sydney Oilers, Hull Kingston Redskins, and Cape Town Ravens, on the other hand, are out of the playoffs.
Everyone else is in with a shout - whilst the lower end teams have a slim probability, and third placed Rochdale Raptors should get in, there's no guarantees for anyone.
And FIVE teams on 18 points, two of which, as of now, are IN the playoffs, three OUT??? Yeah, preposterous!
First major fact: anybody on 17 or 18 points cannot make the top two (only Rochdale and Fairfield possibly could knock Dolphins and/or Crusade out of the top two).
Let's look at the teams, from lowest to highest, and realize that I am not predicting the fate of anybody below 20 points here:
Canberra Carnage, 17 points, +103 differential: games remaining: @ Sydney, Fairfield
Bad news, they need to leapfrog over four teams to make the playoffs. Worse, one of their last two games will involve Fairfield Stallions. The good news, they play Oilers first, and have the second best points differential in the entire ASRL, so a tie on points will be enough.
But leapfrogging four sides? If Canberra doesn't sell out their stadium for the Fairfield match, the club marketing department should get sacked.
Melbourne Monsters, 18 points, +3 differential: Darwin, @ Auckland
Three teams to leapfrog over, and the two immediately above them (Glasgow and Adelaide) basically the same in points differential, with Auckland and Darwin's point differential sufficiently higher that there's no guarantee that they'll catch them on differential if they're tied on points.
The good, the bad, and the ugly: they play Darwin at home, then Auckland away, so they have a puncher's chance to pass them both on points and differential winning both...but will that be enough?
Glasgow Reapers, 18 points, +10 differential: @ Adelaide, Rochdale
Two teams to leapfrog over, Melbourne and Canberra hot on their heels, and the team immediately in front of them, Adelaide, even though it's away, a huge opportunity to step forward toward the playoffs...
...but the last game, a possibly desperate Rochdale visits Scotland...one of the four tough games any 17 or 18 point team has...
Adelaide Attitude, 18 points, +11 differential: Glasgow, @ Brisbane
One team to jump, three teams hot on their heels, and a trip to eliminated Brisbane to end their regular season...but the visit by the Reapers is a must-win...
Auckland Orcas, 18 points, +25 differential: @ Fairfield, Melbourne
Uneasy is
...if they win both, they should be in the playoffs, but that's a huge "if"...
Darwin Dragons, 18 points, +52 differential: @ Melbourne, Gold Coast
Fifth place in the ASRL table is no less uneasy than sixth, this season...possibly the toughest run-in of the teams not clinched yet into the playoffs, especially the Crusade invading Darwin to close the regular season...
...if they win both, they should be in the playoffs, but that last game - OOF!
Fairfield Stallions, 20 points, -24 differential: Auckland, @ Canberra
Note the differential - that could be critical if the Stallions do not win both games. To be safe, Fairfield needs to get three points from their last two games, against two desperate sides clawing to either stay in the top six, or get there...doable, but lots of antacids in Fairfield over the next fortnight...
...they need to win both games, and have Gold Coast lose both theirs, and have Rochdale lose one of their games, to make the top two.
Rochdale Raptors, 21 points, +92 differential: Cape Town, @ Glasgow
Cape Town at Spotland (NOT wherever the sim says that Rochdale has been playing their games in Manchester), and a trip to Glasgow...
...and two points behind Gold Coast, but 47 points behind in differential...
...a win or draw will clinch playoffs...but to get top two, one of two scenarios are required:
a - Rochdale gains at least three points on North Queensland (differential favors Rochdale, so on a tie on points, the differential would suffice).
b - Rochdale gains at least three points on Gold Coast (unless Rochdale wins both games big enough to overturn the differential, the difference in differential makes a tie on points insufficient).
