Post by happybadger on Aug 4, 2018 0:44:45 GMT
After Round 17, we have some clarity, but only some...
...first, an Excel representation of the table:
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...next, no miracles for Cape Town, Hull Kingston, Sydney, or Brisbane - they're all still eliminated from the playoffs...
...then, despite Rochdale's excellent victory over Cape Town, they got no help from North Queensland and Gold Coast, who both won their games...
...and finally, some scrambling below the Raptors...
...so, there are still SIX teams fighting for THREE playoff spots...that battle is the main point of this article...
...as Melbourne Monsters, on 18 points, have a bad differential, so bad that they need a miracle to be able to beat one of the three 20 point sides that have a positive differential, they need to gain at least 65 points of differential to beat one of the 20 point sides, and then there's a 19 point joker in their deck too...so that miracle, if it happens, will get Melbourne Monsters' players free beer for a year, but it's not likely happening...
...but first, Rochdale, unless they can tie the Crusade on points AND gain 30 points in differential, will finish third, and cannot finish worse than third...
...Gold Coast can pip North Queensland to the Minor Premiership if they can tie on points (differential advantage), or win whilst the Dolphins lose...
...and all the Dolphins need to do to win the Minor Premiership is win, baby, win! They cannot finish worse than second...
...okay, then, on to the main course, bottom to top , 18 to 20 point teams:
Glasgow Reapers, 9th place, 18 pts/-12 differential, Rochdale: The Reapers are basically out, but with a better differential, they do have a slightly less insane chance than the Monsters to get sixth, but they can't expect any favours from the Raptors, not after their Redskins' debacle earlier in the season...
Canberra Carnage, 8th, 19/+117, Fairfield: Canberra won't clinch with a win over the Stallions, as they'll need one other of the 20 pointers to lose or draw as well (the Carnage's differential will do them in good stead here)...but if they win, Fairfield will be out...
Fairfield Stallions, 7th, 20/-28, at Canberra: ...Fairfield must win, and get some help, as their differential is 58 points worse than the worst other 20 point side, but if the Game of the Week isn't in Canberra, the network should lose its contract!
Auckland Orcas, 6th, 20/+29, Melbourne: Win and they're in, but they have a tricky little game against the Monsters...
Adelaide Attitude, 5th, 20/+33, at Brisbane: Like the Orcas, the Attitude are in with a win, but Brisbane has some good form, and Adelaide has to travel over to Victoria, let's hope that their trip doesn't turn bitter...
Darwin Dragons, 4th, 20/+90, Gold Coast: Once more, a win and in applies to the Dragons, but can the Dragons handle a Crusade? There will likely be some horicruxic assistance for the Dragons from the Sorting Hat of Rochdale Manour, but will that be enough to cause the Crusade to collapse like a bride's first souffle?
One of the current four 20 point sides will be eliminated at the end of the season, and if Canberra causes some carnage against Fairfield, two could be eliminated.
Have fun, everyone!
...first, an Excel representation of the table:
...next, no miracles for Cape Town, Hull Kingston, Sydney, or Brisbane - they're all still eliminated from the playoffs...
...then, despite Rochdale's excellent victory over Cape Town, they got no help from North Queensland and Gold Coast, who both won their games...
...and finally, some scrambling below the Raptors...
...so, there are still SIX teams fighting for THREE playoff spots...that battle is the main point of this article...
...as Melbourne Monsters, on 18 points, have a bad differential, so bad that they need a miracle to be able to beat one of the three 20 point sides that have a positive differential, they need to gain at least 65 points of differential to beat one of the 20 point sides, and then there's a 19 point joker in their deck too...so that miracle, if it happens, will get Melbourne Monsters' players free beer for a year, but it's not likely happening...
...but first, Rochdale, unless they can tie the Crusade on points AND gain 30 points in differential, will finish third, and cannot finish worse than third...
...Gold Coast can pip North Queensland to the Minor Premiership if they can tie on points (differential advantage), or win whilst the Dolphins lose...
...and all the Dolphins need to do to win the Minor Premiership is win, baby, win! They cannot finish worse than second...
...okay, then, on to the main course, bottom to top , 18 to 20 point teams:
Glasgow Reapers, 9th place, 18 pts/-12 differential, Rochdale: The Reapers are basically out, but with a better differential, they do have a slightly less insane chance than the Monsters to get sixth, but they can't expect any favours from the Raptors, not after their Redskins' debacle earlier in the season...
Canberra Carnage, 8th, 19/+117, Fairfield: Canberra won't clinch with a win over the Stallions, as they'll need one other of the 20 pointers to lose or draw as well (the Carnage's differential will do them in good stead here)...but if they win, Fairfield will be out...
Fairfield Stallions, 7th, 20/-28, at Canberra: ...Fairfield must win, and get some help, as their differential is 58 points worse than the worst other 20 point side, but if the Game of the Week isn't in Canberra, the network should lose its contract!
Auckland Orcas, 6th, 20/+29, Melbourne: Win and they're in, but they have a tricky little game against the Monsters...
Adelaide Attitude, 5th, 20/+33, at Brisbane: Like the Orcas, the Attitude are in with a win, but Brisbane has some good form, and Adelaide has to travel over to Victoria, let's hope that their trip doesn't turn bitter...
Darwin Dragons, 4th, 20/+90, Gold Coast: Once more, a win and in applies to the Dragons, but can the Dragons handle a Crusade? There will likely be some horicruxic assistance for the Dragons from the Sorting Hat of Rochdale Manour, but will that be enough to cause the Crusade to collapse like a bride's first souffle?
One of the current four 20 point sides will be eliminated at the end of the season, and if Canberra causes some carnage against Fairfield, two could be eliminated.
Have fun, everyone!
